The peak, the plateau, and the phase two

What has been happening in Italy in the last few days, and what can other Western countries expect in the next week or two?

The national discourse has been obsessed with “The Peak,” that is, the time when things reach their worst point, and start improving after that. For the last several days, all indicators, such as new cases, deaths, and ICU occupancy, have been improving. Apparently, then, “The Peak” is behind us. Virologists have been cautious to say that “peak” is the wrong mountain metaphor to use, and that we have rather reached a “plateau” in which things will change very slowly for a while.

Below is the number of confirmed covid-19 deaths in Italy updated with today’s data, showing that we reached the plateau a couple of weeks ago, meaning that the number of new cases started to plateau about a month ago, when the lockdown started.

italy-deaths

The data from New York City continues to track the data from Lombardy, so NYC should be just a few days away from its own plateau, if the match continues.

lombardy-nyc

lombardy-nyc-daily

Given all this, people have been wondering when and how we will get out of the lockdown, and reach what everybody has been calling the “Phase Two” of this emergency.

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